Climate-Driven Escalation of Global PM<sub>2.5</sub> Health Burden from Wildland Fires
Qirui Zhong, Guofeng Shen, Bin Wang, Jianmin Ma, Shu Tao
Abstract
Wildland fires constitute a major source of ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), significantly impacting air quality and public health. As the climate becomes warmer and drier, fire frequency is projected to rise, yet how the associated health impacts of fire-sourced PM 2.5 (FPM 2.5 ) respond to climate change remains vague. In this study, we modeled the global concentration and associated premature deaths of FPM 2.5 over the past two decades. Our results reveal an upward trend in FPM 2.5 concentrations globally, contributing to an increase in premature deaths from 156,000 to 241,000 between 2000 and 2021, alongside population growth and aging. Substantial variations are observed on a regional scale, but most regions experience increasing exposure levels, suggesting an increased impact of FPM 2.5 . Further regression analysis indicates that climate change plays a critical role in these trends, accounting for 56% of the net changes in FPM 2.5 -related premature deaths. Warming and drought emerge as key drivers of climate-induced health risks, with slightly different contributions to the FPM 2.5 concentration and the associated premature deaths. Our findings underscore the urgent need to integrate climate adaptation strategies with fire management to mitigate the growing health burden caused by FPM 2.5 worldwide.