A systems modelling approach to predict biological responses to extreme heat
Daniel W.A. Noble, Margaret M. Mayfield, Ary A. Hoffmann, Zhong-Hua Chen, Steven J. Lade, Xuemei Bai, Danielle A. Way, Belinda E. Medlyn, Owen K. Atkin, Adrienne B. Nicotra, James M. Cook, Brajesh K. Singh, Alison R. Bentley, Ian J. Wright, Michael R. Kearney
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is leading to more frequent and extreme heat waves. These large-scale events are radically reshaping interactions among organisms-impacting biodiversity, community composition, and ecosystem services crucial to natural systems and food security. Predicting heat wave impacts on interacting species requires an understanding of the processes driving differential exposure and sensitivity of organisms to extreme heat events in a life cycle context. To achieve this predictive capacity, we need to integrate models across scales while capturing species-specific responses at the individual level. We review and demonstrate how existing models in disparate fields can be linked to achieve an increased understanding of how individuals and communities will respond to extreme heat, now and into the future.