Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5–2°C
Maria Sharmina, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Charlie Wilson, Rachel Freeman, David Gernaat, Pamela K. Gilbert, A. Larkin, Emma Littleton, Michael Traut, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Naomi E. Vaughan, Frances Wood, Corinne Le Quéré
Abstract
Limiting warming to well below 2C requires rapid and complete decarbonisation of energy systems. We compare economy-wide modelling of 1.5C and 2C scenarios with sector-focused analyses of four critical sectors that are difficult to decarbonise: aviation, shipping, road freight transport, and industry. We develop and apply a novel framework to analyse and track mitigation progress in these sectors. We find that emission reductions in the 1.5C and 2C scenarios of the IMAGE model come from deep cuts in CO 2 intensities and lower energy intensities, with minimal demand reductions in these sectors' activity. We identify a range of additional measures and policy levers that are not explicitly captured in modelled scenarios but could contribute significant emission reductions. These are demand reduction options, and include less air travel (aviation), reduced transportation of fossil fuels (shipping), more locally produced goods combined with high load factors (road freight), and a shift to a circular economy (industry). We discuss the challenges of reducing demand both for economy-wide modelling and for policy. Based on our sectoral analysis framework, we suggest modelling improvements and policy recommendations, calling on the relevant UN agencies to start tracking mitigation progress through monitoring key elements of the framework (CO 2 intensity, energy efficiency, and demand for sectoral activity, as well as the underlying drivers), as a matter of urgency.