What further should be done to control COVID-19 outbreaks in addition to cases isolation and contact tracing measures?
Zhenjian He
Abstract
Historically, these interventions have been successfully applied for controlling a variety of emerging infectious disease outbreaks, such as smallpox and SARS, but only partially effective for foot-and-mouth disease, and likely not effective for influenza [2,3,4] Currently, it is not yet clear whether case isolation and contact tracing measures are sufficient to contain a new outbreak from COVID-19 Recently, Hellewell and colleagues developed a stochastic transmission model to assess the potential effectiveness of case isolation and contact tracing in controlling COVID-19 outbreak [5] They suggested that in most modeled scenarios contact tracing and case isolation alone might be insufficient to control a new outbreak of COVID-19 within 3 months, especially when longer delays from symptom onset to isolation, fewer cases ascertained by contact tracing, and increased transmission before symptoms exist It is the first study using a stochastic model to evaluate the effects of isolation and contact tracing intervention for outbreak of COVID-19 In this study, the authors simplified the outputs of their model to the effects of contact tracing and isolation on the control of outbreaks under different scenarios of transmission, and included several parameters (e g , the basic reproduction number R0, the delay from symptom onset to isolation, and the probability contacts were traced) other than merely focusing on R0 This interesting study provides a timely evaluation strategy to quantify the potential effectiveness of case isolation and contact tracing measures and may bring insights for the control the COVID-19 outbreak in China and probably other areas of the world as wellDO - 10 1186/s12916-020-01551-8