Water demand forecasting and countermeasures across the Yellow River basin: Analysis from the perspective of water resources carrying capacity
Lishuo Guo, Wenbin Zhu, Jiaxing Wei, Lifang Wang
Abstract
The Yellow River Basin plays a crucial role in China's socio-economic development and ecological security. The growing trend of water consumption driven by anthropogenic activities has posed an increasing number of challenges for the sustainable development of the Yellow River basin. Water demand prediction plays a central part in facilitating water conservation by developing water allocation strategies. Hence, the water demand prediction model based on the concept of water resources carrying capacity was built to predict water demand with different future scenarios and provide reference strategies for water allocation. With all changing scenarios under consideration, the future demand for water resources will significantly increase compared with the current conditions. The range of water demand by each province along the Yellow River basin is exhibited in this study. Two scenarios with different economic development conditions and cascading water use efficiency are investigated. In addition, solutions for improving water use efficiency and increasing the available quantity of water are put forward to ameliorate water stress. Specifically, water distribution schemes with a medium level of water use efficiency in different economic growth scenarios are proposed based on the available water resources from the Yellow River basin and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. This work will benefit local planners and decision-makers.