The 2020 oil price dive in a carbon-constrained era: strategies for energy exporters in central Asia
Morena Skalamera
Abstract
Abstract The quick rise of commercially viable renewable energy worldwide presents encouraging opportunities for sustainable growth, but it also portends new risks. Hydrocarbon-producing nations of Eurasia have typically strongly relied on geographic proximity to their most lucrative export market: Europe. Yet the revolutionary nature of Europe's ‘Green Deal’ means that their position is under threat. While the demand-side ramifications of the global low-carbon transition are widely discussed, little consideration has been given to the inevitable implications for hydrocarbons producers, particularly in the less-studied central Asian region. This article draws attention to the interconnections between hydrocarbon rents, regime stability and new foreign policy strategies in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in the wake of the global shift away from oil to renewable energy. By so doing, it systematically examines what implications the energy transition has on crucial petrostates in central Asia, and what this, in turn, means for international stability.