Left ventricular functional recovery after atrial fibrillation catheter ablation in heart failure: a prediction model
Marco Bergonti, Ciro Ascione, Lorenzo Marcon, Thomas Pambrun, Domenico G. Della Rocca, Teba González Ferrero, Luigi Pannone, Michael Kühne, Paolo Compagnucci, Alice Bonomi, Andreas B. Gevaert, Matteo Anselmino, Michela Casella, Philipp Krisai, Claudio Tondo, Moisés Rodríguez‐Mañero, Nicolas Derval, Gian‐Battista Chierchia, Carlo de Asmundis, Hein Heidbüchel, Pierre Jaı̈s, Andrea Sarkozy
Abstract
AIMS: Management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and concomitant heart failure (HF) remains complex. The Antwerp score, based on four parameters [QRS >120 ms (2 points), known aetiology (2 points), paroxysmal AF (1 point), severe atrial dilation (1 point)] adequately estimated the probability of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) recovery after AF ablation in a single-centre cohort. The present study aims to externally validate this prediction model in a large European multi-centre cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 605 patients (61.1 ± 9.4 years, 23.8% females, 79.8% with persistent AF) with HF and impaired LVEF (<50%) undergoing AF ablation in 8 European centres were retrospectively identified. According to the LVEF changes at 12-month echocardiography, 427 (70%) patients fulfilled the '2021 Universal Definition of HF' criteria for LVEF recovery and were defined as 'responders'. External validation of the score yielded good discrimination and calibration {area under the curve 0.86 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82-0.89], P < .001; Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .29}. Patients with a score < 2 had a 93% probability of LVEF recovery as opposed to only 24% in patients with a score > 3. Responders experienced more often positive ventricular remodelling [odds ratio (OR) 8.91, 95% CI 4.45-17.84, P < .001], fewer HF hospitalizations (OR 0.09, 95% CI 0.05-0.18, P < .001) and lower mortality (OR 0.11, 95% CI 0.04-0.31, P < .001). CONCLUSION: In this multi-centre study, a simple four-parameter score predicted LVEF recovery after AF ablation in patients with HF and discriminated clinical outcomes. These findings support the use of the Antwerp score to standardize shared decision-making regarding AF ablation referral in future clinical studies.