Flow state estimation in the presence of discretization errors
André Fernando de Castro da Silva, Tim Colonius
Abstract
Ensemble data assimilation methods integrate measurement data and computational flow models to estimate the state of fluid systems in a robust, scalable way. However, discretization errors in the dynamical and observation models lead to biased forecasts and poor estimator performance. We propose a low-rank representation for this bias, whose dynamics is modelled by data-informed, time-correlated processes. State and bias parameters are simultaneously corrected online with the ensemble Kalman filter. The proposed methodology is then applied to the problem of estimating the state of a two-dimensional flow at modest Reynolds number using an ensemble of coarse-mesh simulations and pressure measurements at the surface of an immersed body in a synthetic experiment framework. Using an ensemble size of 60, the bias-aware estimator is demonstrated to achieve at least 70 % error reduction when compared to its bias-blind counterpart. Strategies to determine the bias statistics and their impact on the estimator performance are discussed.