Past and projected climate change impacts on heat-related child mortality in Africa

Abstract

Background and Aim: Climate change is likely to impact on the health of children. Children under 5 years are vulnerable to hot weather due to their limited ability to thermoregulate, and because high temperatures can exacerbate other health conditions. We estimated the impacts of past and future anthropogenic warming on child mortality due to higher temperatures. Methods: We estimated heat-related child mortality using a linear threshold model. Scenario-based estimates were generated using the CMIP6 global climate scenarios. We estimated heat-related child mortality for the period 1995–2020 in Africa, and apportioned the observed temperature increases to natural variability and anthropogenic climate change (from the DAMIP experiment of CMIP6). We estimated the future burden of child mortality for the period 2020–2050 for three emission scenarios (SSP119, SSP245 and SSP585), and a single scenario of population growth. Results: By 2009, heat-related child mortality was double what it would have been without climate change. Further, this climate change-related increase was greater than the reduction in heat-related child mortality from improvements in health and development. Under a high emission scenario (SSP585) heat-related child mortality was projected to double by 2049 compared to 2005-2014. If 2050 temperature increases are kept to the Paris target of 1.5ºC (SSP119), approximately 4,000–6,000 heat related child deaths could be avoided annually in Africa, compared with the SSP585 scenario. Conclusions: Our findings support the need for urgent mitigation and adaptation measures to save lives now and in the future. Estimating heat related child mortality in Africa is complex due to a lack of epidemiological evidence about how heat effects child mortality across the continent.

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