Sea temperature and pollution are associated with infectious disease mortality in short-beaked common dolphins
Rosie S. Williams, David J. Curnick, Andrew Baillie, Jonathan L. Barber, James Barnett, Andrew Brownlow, Robert Deaville, Nicholas J. Davison, Mariel ten Doeschate, Paul D. Jepson, Sinéad Murphy, Rod Penrose, Matthew W. Perkins, Simon Spiro, Ruth Williams, Michael J. Williamson, Andrew A. Cunningham, Andrew C. Johnson, Andrew A. Cunningham, Andrew C. Johnson
Abstract
The concurrent pressures of climate change and chemical pollution, often studied in isolation, have been linked to increases in infectious disease that threaten biodiversity. Understanding their interconnected nature is vital, as the impacts of climate-mediated environmental changes can be exacerbated by chemical pollution and vice versa. Using data from 836 UK-stranded short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) (n = 153 (analysed for polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) blubber concentrations)) necropsied between 1990 and 2020, we show that PCB concentrations and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are associated with an increased risk of infectious disease mortality. Specifically, a 1 mg/kg lipid increase in PCB concentration correlates with a 1.6% increase in disease mortality risk, while a 1 °C rise in SST corresponds to a 14% increase. Additionally, we derived a novel PCB threshold concentration (22 mg/kg lipid), defined as the level where PCB blubber concentrations are significantly associated with infectious disease mortality risk. International efforts to reduce carbon emissions have mostly failed, and despite regulatory efforts, PCBs remain a significant threat. We demonstrate the urgent need for conservation strategies that address both risk factors simultaneously to protect marine biodiversity.