COVID-19 Epidemiology during Delta Variant Dominance Period in 45 High-Income Countries, 2020–2021
Christine Atherstone, Sarah Anne J. Guagliardo, Anthony W. Hawksworth, Kevin O’Laughlin, Kimberly A. Wong, Michelle L. Sloan, Olga L. Henao, Carol Y. Rao, Peter D. McElroy, Sarah D. Bennett
Abstract
The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, first identified in October 2020, quickly became the dominant variant worldwide. We used publicly available data to explore the relationship between illness and death (peak case rates, death rates, case-fatality rates) and selected predictors (percentage vaccinated, percentage of the population >65 years, population density, testing volume, index of mitigation policies) in 45 high-income countries during the Delta wave using rank-order correlation and ordinal regression. During the Delta-dominant period, most countries reported higher peak case rates (57%) and lower peak case-fatality rates (98%). Higher vaccination coverage was protective against peak case rates (odds ratio 0.95, 95% CI 0.91-0.99) and against peak death rates (odds ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.91-0.99). Vaccination coverage was vital to preventing infection and death from COVID-19 during the Delta wave. As new variants emerge, public health authorities should encourage the uptake of COVID-19 vaccination and boosters.