Policy makers, genetic engineers, and an engaged public can work together to create climate-resilient plants
Bella N. Archibald, Vivian Zhong, Jennifer A. N. Brophy
Abstract
Climate-resilient plants will be essential for agricultural stability in a less predictable world. As climate disruptions such as droughts, floods, and extreme temperature fluctuations become more common, current farmland will become less productive. Each one-degree Celsius temperature increase is predicted to decrease wheat, rice, and maize yields by 6%, 3%, and 7%, respectively Thus, in the most drastic climate scenarios, grain production could fall by 15% to 35% over the next decade. Resilient crops will be an important part of ensuring future agricultural stability. However, plants that can tolerate extreme environmental stress, including varieties with better water-use efficiency, heat and flood tolerance, and frost resistance, will not be easy to generate using established methods. Breeding and random mutagenesis are too slow and can be difficult to control. Even CRISPR-Cas9-based gene editing is likely to be insufficient because improved resilience will probably require dynamic and/or tissue-constrained modifications to plants (Fig