Determination of Land Degradation in Romania at a Local Scale Using Advanced Analytical Techniques
Kinga Ivan, József Benedek, Ibolya Török, Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă, Mircea Alexe
Abstract
ABSTRACT Land degradation (LD) threatens the food security and general welfare of many people globally. Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) is a pivotal goal within the global sustainability agenda, particularly under Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.3.1, which measures the proportion of land that is degraded over total land area. Romania, with its diverse landscapes and significant agricultural sector, faces notable challenges in this area. Assessing this SDG indicator serves to identify vulnerable areas and assists policymakers in defining the necessary strategic instruments and actions. Most previous studies have assessed land degradation using low‐ or moderate‐resolution data without clearly identifying the triggering factors, thereby limiting the ability to detect changes at the sub‐national level and analyze in detail the influence of these factors on the environment. This research is the first to examine the relationship between the proportion of land that is degraded and 20 potential triggering factors in cities and municipalities, aiming to identify key drivers of land degradation and provide insights for urban planning and policy‐making. The study integrates a series of high and medium‐resolution statistical, geospatial, and EO data sources to effectively assess land degradation and identify triggering factors in 103 municipalities and 216 cities. Using multiple regression analysis (MRA) and the Random Forest Method (RF), this study analyzed various predictive factors influencing LD, revealing that changes in land cover, temperature, and multi‐annual average precipitation, along with atmospheric pollutants (CO, SO 2 ) and Land Surface Temperature, significantly contribute to land degradation in large cities. These factors accounted for approximately 83.3% (MRA) and 96.7% (RF) of the variation in the land degradation indicator, underscoring their roles in influencing land degradation trends. According to the results, 2.3% of Romania's area was degraded during the 2015–2022 period, 58% remained stable, 38% showed improvements, and the remaining 1.7% represented water bodies. By identifying vulnerable communes and counties, and the triggering factors, the study supports the implementation of appropriate measures to combat LD, a crucial step in Romania's efforts to achieve LDN by 2030.