A Multi-Step-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Approach Using One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks and Transformer
Jihoon Moon
Abstract
Due to environmental concerns about the use of fossil fuels, renewable energy, especially solar energy, is increasingly sought after for its ease of installation, cost-effectiveness, and versatile capacity. However, the variability in environmental factors poses a significant challenge to photovoltaic (PV) power generation forecasting, which is crucial for maintaining power system stability and economic efficiency. In this paper, a novel muti-step-ahead PV power generation forecasting model by integrating single-step and multi-step forecasts from various time resolutions was developed. One-dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) layers were used for single-step forecasting to capture specific temporal patterns, with the transformer model improving multi-step forecasting by leveraging the combined outputs of the CNN. This combination can provide accurate and immediate forecasts as well as the ability to identify longer-term generation trends. Using the DKASC-ASA-1A and 1B datasets for empirical validation, several preprocessing methods were applied and a series of experiments were conducted to compare the performance of the model with other widely used deep learning models. The framework proved to be capable of accurately predicting multi-step-ahead PV power generation at multiple time resolutions.