Forecasting Daily Ambient PM2.5 Concentrations in Qingdao City Using Deep Learning and Hybrid Interpretable Models and Analysis of Driving Factors Using SHAP
Zhenfang He, Q. L. Guo, Zuhan Zhang, Genyue Feng, Shuaisen Qiao, Zhaosheng Wang
Abstract
With the acceleration of urbanization in China, air pollution is becoming increasingly serious, especially PM2.5 pollution, which poses a significant threat to public health. The study employed different deep learning models, including recurrent neural network (RNN), artificial neural network (ANN), convolutional Neural Network (CNN), bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM), Transformer, and novel hybrid interpretable CNN–BiLSTM–Transformer architectures for forecasting daily PM2.5 concentrations on the integrated dataset. The dataset of meteorological factors and atmospheric pollutants in Qingdao City was used as input features for the model. Among the models tested, the hybrid CNN–BiLSTM–Transformer model achieved the highest prediction accuracy by extracting local features, capturing temporal dependencies in both directions, and enhancing global pattern and key information, with low root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (5.4236 μg/m3), low mean absolute error (MAE) (4.0220 μg/m3), low mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) (22.7791%) and high correlation coefficient (R) (0.9743) values. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis further revealed that PM10, CO, mean atmospheric temperature, O3, and SO2 are the key influencing factors of PM2.5. This study provides a more comprehensive and multidimensional approach for predicting air pollution, and valuable insights for people’s health and policy makers.