DFSeer: A Visual Analytics Approach to Facilitate Model Selection for Demand Forecasting
Dong Sun, Zezheng Feng, Yuanzhe Chen, Yong Wang, Jia Zeng, Mingxuan Yuan, Ting-Chuen Pong, Huamin Qu
Abstract
Selecting an appropriate model to forecast product demand is critical to the manufacturing industry. However, due to the data complexity, market uncertainty and users' demanding requirements for the model, it is challenging for demand analysts to select a proper model. Although existing model selection methods can reduce the manual burden to some extent, they often fail to present model performance details on individual products and reveal the potential risk of the selected model. This paper presents DFSeer, an interactive visualization system to conduct reliable model selection for demand forecasting based on the products with similar historical demand. It supports model comparison and selection with different levels of details. Besides, it shows the difference in model performance on similar products to reveal the risk of model selection and increase users' confidence in choosing a forecasting model. Two case studies and interviews with domain experts demonstrate the effectiveness and usability of DFSeer.