Incorporating both genetic and tobacco smoking data to identify high-risk smokers for lung cancer screening
Guochong Jia, Wanqing Wen, Pierre P. Massion, Xiao‐Ou Shu, Wei Zheng
Abstract
The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recently proposed to widen the current lung cancer screening guideline to include less-heavy smokers. We sought to incorporate both genetic and tobacco smoking data to evaluate the proposed new guideline in white smokers. We constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) using lung cancer risk variants. Using data from 308 490 participants of European descent in the UK Biobank, a population-based cohort study, we estimated hazard ratios of lung cancer associated with both tobacco smoking and PRS to identify individuals at a similar or higher risk than the group of heavy smokers who are recommended for screening under the USPSTF-2014 guideline (≥30 pack-years, either current or former smokers who quit within 15 years). During a median follow-up of 5.8 years, 1449 incident cases of lung cancer were identified. We found a similar lung cancer risk for current smokers with 20-29 pack-years [hazard ratio = 20.7, 95% confidence interval: 16.3-26.4] and the 'heavy smoker group' defined above (hazard ratio = 19.9, 95% confidence interval: 16.8-23.6) compared with never smokers. Current smokers with 20-29 pack-years did not reach a 6-year absolute risk of 0.0151, a suggested risk threshold for using low-dose computed tomography screening, until the age of 55 years. However, these smokers at high genetic risk (PRS ≥ 80%) reached this risk level at the age of 50. Our findings support the USPSTF proposal to lower the smoking pack-year eligibility to 20 pack-years for current smokers and suggest that PRS for lung cancer could be considered to identify high-risk smokers for screening.