A model for predicting the deterioration of the pavement condition index
Arieh Sidess, Amnon Ravina, Eyal Oged
Abstract
Road pavements continuously deteriorate mainly due to the combined influence of the traffic load and the environmental conditions. The pavement ability to satisfy the road user demands over its design life, expresses its performance level. The prediction of pavement performance level or performance deterioration curves is a basic component of any Pavement Management System (PMS). This paper presents the development of a model for predicting the deterioration of the Pavement Condition Index (PCI), calibrating its parameters based on the pavement structural factors such as structural number, asphalt layer thickness, subgrade strength, and environmental conditions. The approach that was adopted for the PCI deterioration model development was based on the combination of the empirical-mechanistic approach and the regressive empirical approach. The model's predicted results were compared with the measured results of road sections located in varied climate zones, which are embedded in the PMS of Netivei Israel (NETI), National Company for Transport Infrastructures. The comparison shows a very good correlation, and most of the predicted results are deviant within the measurement and interpretation error range.