Predicted dominance of variant Delta of SARS-CoV-2 before Tokyo Olympic Games, Japan, July 2021
Kimihito Ito, Chayada Piantham, Hiroshi Nishiura
Abstract
Using numbers of SARS-CoV-2 variants detected in Japan as at 13 June 2021, relative instantaneous reproduction numbers (R RI ) of the R.1, Alpha, and Delta variants with respect to other strains circulating in Japan were estimated at 1.25, 1.44, and 1.95. Depending on the assumed serial interval distributions, R RI varies from 1.20–1.32 for R.1, 1.34–1.58 for Alpha, and 1.70–2.30 for Delta. The frequency of Delta is expected to take over Alpha in Japan before 23 July 2021.
Topics & Concepts
DeltaSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Dominance (genetics)Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakDemographyBiologyVirologyGeneticsPhysicsMedicineInternal medicineInfectious disease (medical specialty)OutbreakDiseaseGeneAstronomySociologySARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 ResearchCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesSARS-CoV-2 detection and testing