Estimating the basic reproduction number for COVID-19 in Western Europe
Isabella Locatelli, Bastien Trächsel, Valentin Rousson
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in Western Europe. METHODS: Data (official statistics) on the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 at the start of the outbreak (before any confinement rules were declared) were retrieved in the 15 largest countries in Western Europe, allowing us to estimate the exponential growth rate of the disease. The rate was then combined with estimates of the distribution of the generation interval as reconstructed from the literature. RESULTS: Despite the possible unreliability of some official statistics about COVID-19, the spread of the disease appears to be remarkably similar in most European countries, allowing us to estimate an average R0 in Western Europe of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.9-2.6). CONCLUSIONS: The value of R0 for COVID-19 in Western Europe appears to be significantly lower than that in China. The proportion of immune persons in the European population required to stop the outbreak could thus be closer to 50% than to 70%.