Solar photovoltaic waste and resource potential projections in Australia, 2022–2050
Verity Tan, Rong Deng, Renate Egan
Abstract
Solar photovoltaic (PV) waste and resource projections are integral for end-of-life (EoL) management. Addressing gaps in Australian studies, this paper aims to produce improved projections from 2022 to 2050. This study uses up-to-date, location-based installation data, distributed practical lifetime estimates by system size, current literature on market share and material composition over time and recovery rates, and provides a closed loop material analysis. In 2050, cumulative PV waste is estimated at 2,000,000–3,000,000 tonnes for slow, conservative, and realistic forecast installations, though under ambitious installs, waste will be 1–2 times more. Additionally, in 5 years PV EoL silver and aluminium could supply on average 30 % of future PV demand, 50 % in 15 years, and even up to 100 % in 25 years, considering realistic or ambitious forecast installations. These findings seek to assist in establishing sustainable EoL PV management, including the planning of logistics, appropriate recycling methods, consumer-appropriate policy, and the integration of circularity.