Analyzing the Arctic Feedback Mechanism between Sea Ice and Low-Level Clouds Using 34 Years of Satellite Observations
Daniel Philipp, Martin Stengel, Bodo Ahrens
Abstract
Abstract Satellite-based cloud, radiation flux, and sea ice records covering 34 years are used 1) to investigate autumn cloud cover trends over the Arctic, 2) to assess its relation with declining sea ice using Granger causality (GC) analysis, and 3) to discuss the contribution of the cloud–sea ice (CSI) feedback to Arctic amplification. This paper provides strong evidence for a positive CSI feedback with the capability to contribute to autumnal Arctic amplification. Positive low-level cloud fractional cover (CFC low ) trends over the Arctic ice pack are found in October and November (ON) with magnitudes of up to about +9.6% per decade locally. Statistically significant anticorrelations between sea ice concentration (SIC) and CFC low are observed in ON over melting zones, suggesting an association. The GC analysis indicated a causal two-way interaction between SIC and CFC low . Interpreting the resulting F statistic and its spatial distribution as a relation strength proxy, the influence of SIC on CFC low is likely stronger than the reverse. ERA-Interim reanalysis data suggest that ON CFC low is impacted by sea ice melt through surface–atmosphere coupling via turbulent heat and moisture fluxes. Due to weak solar insolation in ON, net cloud radiative forcing (CRF) exerts a warming effect on the Arctic surface. Increasing CFC low induces a large-scale surface warming trend reaching magnitudes of up to about +8.3 W m −2 per decade locally. Sensitivities of total CRF to CFC low ranges between +0.22 and +0.66 W m −2 per percent CFC low . Increasing surface warming can cause a melt season lengthening and hinders formation of perennial ice.