Artificial intelligence to predict individualized outcome of acute ischemic stroke patients: The SIBILLA project
Pietro Caliandro, Jacopo Lenkowicz, Giuseppe Reale, Simone Scaringi, Aurelia Zauli, Christian Uccheddu, Simone Fabiole-Nicoletto, Stefano Patarnello, Andrea Damiani, Luca Tagliaferri, Iacopo Valente, M. De Marco, Mauro Monforte, Vincenzo Valentini, Paolo Calabresi
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Formulating reliable prognosis for ischemic stroke patients remains a challenging task. We aimed to develop an artificial intelligence model able to formulate in the first 24 h after stroke an individualized prognosis in terms of NIHSS. PATIENTS AND METHODS: -Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine, XGBoost) in predicting NIHSS at discharge both in terms of variation between discharge and admission (regressor approach) and in terms of severity class namely NIHSS 0-5, 6-10, 11-20, >20 (classifier approach). We used Shapley Additive exPlanations values to weight features impact on predictions. RESULTS: XGBoost emerged as the best performing model. The classifier and regressor approaches perform similarly in terms of accuracy (80% vs 75%) and f1-score (79% vs 77%) respectively. However, the regressor has higher precision (85% vs 68%) in predicting prognosis of very severe stroke patients (NIHSS > 20). NIHSS at admission and 24 hours, GCS at 24 hours, heart rate, acute ischemic lesion on CT-scan and TICI score were the most impacting features on the prediction. DISCUSSION: Our approach, which employs an artificial intelligence based-tool, inherently able to continuously learn and improve its performance, could improve care pathway and support stroke physicians in the communication with patients and caregivers. CONCLUSION: XGBoost reliably predicts individualized outcome in terms of NIHSS at discharge in the first 24 hours after stroke.