Refining prediction of stroke in sinus node dysfunction patients without atrial fibrillation using a P-combined score: a multi-centre study
Haoyu Dong, Yan Zhang, Dongxu Sun, Gaopin Wang, Qinglong Zhang, Tesfaldet H. Hidru, Yiheng Yang, Shihao Wang, Yushan Wei, Fei Liu, Jinpu Zhang, Yunlong Xia, Xiaolei Yang
Abstract
AIMS: Isolated sinus node dysfunction (ISND) is a sinus node dysfunction without atrial fibrillation. A high risk of ischaemic stroke (IS) has been reported in ISND populations. However, current guidelines do not recommend anticoagulation in ISND management. P-wave indicates ISND-related atrial remodelling. P-wave indices and the CHA2DS2-VASc score may contribute to risk stratification for ISND-related IS. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this multi-centre longitudinal cohort, ISND patients were divided into development (n = 1185) and external validation (n = 988) cohorts. Ischaemic stroke prediction capacity of the P-combined score was assessed with regard to discrimination, calibration, and clinical effectiveness. The cut-off value of the score was confirmed by using a restricted cubic spline curve. One hundred and twenty-four (10.46%) ISND patients developed IS [1.63%/year; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.49-1.78%/year] after a median 3.02-year follow-up in the development cohort. The P-wave terminal force in electrocardiogram-lead V1 (PTFV1) was the only significantly abnormal P-wave index (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.56; 95% CI: 1.72-3.80). Therefore, we incorporated the PTFV1 with the CHA2DS2-VASc score to generate a P-combined score. For a 5-year IS risk, the P-combined score improved Harrell's C-statistic (95% CI) from 0.678 (0.618-0.738) to 0.716 (0.657-0.774) and 0.747 (0.677-0.816) to 0.808 (0.747-0.868) in the development and validation cohorts, respectively, along with calibration and decision curve analyses. The cut-off value of the score was 3 in the development cohort and well-discriminated in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Chinese ISND patients have a higher IS risk than the general population. Compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc score, the PTFV1-combined CHA2DS2-VASc score shows a better risk-stratification capacity for ISND-related IS.