The basic reproduction number of SARS‐CoV‐2 in Wuhan is about to die out, how about the rest of the World?
Bootan Rahman, Evar Lutfalla Sadraddin, Annamaria Porreca
Abstract
Summary The virologically confirmed cases of a new coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) in the world are rapidly increasing, leading epidemiologists and mathematicians to construct transmission models that aim to predict the future course of the current pandemic. The transmissibility of a virus is measured by the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ), which measures the average number of new cases generated per typical infectious case. This review highlights the articles reporting rigorous estimates and determinants of COVID‐19 R 0 for the most affected areas. Moreover, the mean of all estimated R 0 with median and interquartile range is calculated. According to these articles, the basic reproduction number of the virus epicentre Wuhan has now declined below the important threshold value of 1.0 since the disease emerged. Ongoing modelling will inform the transmission rates seen in the new epicentres outside of China, including Italy, Iran and South Korea.