Smallholder farmers’ perception of climate change and drivers of adaptation in agriculture: A case study in Guinea
Paolo Ceci, Lavinia Monforte, Chiara Perelli, Clara Cicatiello, Giacomo Branca, Silvio Franco, Fatoumata Binta Sombily Diallo, Emanuele Blasi, Giuseppe Scarascia Mugnozza
Abstract
Abstract In developing countries, the adoption of effective climate change adaptation strategies can safeguard rural communities’ livelihoods. Using survey data collected in Guinea in 2012, the paper investigates the factors affecting households’ strategies to face adverse climate change impacts. A three‐step methodology is applied: (1) assessment of the magnitude of real climatic trends in the study area together with farmers’ perception of climate change; (2) identification of physical and socioeconomic variables influencing farmers’ adaptation propensity; and (3) analysis of factors affecting adaptation choices, including climate change perception. The climatic data analysis confirms increase in minimum and maximum temperature trends, increase in annual average millimeters of rain, and decrease in average number of storms per year. Farmers’ perception of climate change turned out to be aligned with historical climatic trends and represents an important determinant for the adoption of adaptation strategies. The regression model results suggest that the propensity to adapt is positively influenced by the level of education and a limited access to water resources and agricultural inputs, forcing households to adopt new cropping calendars. Effective policy action should consider different areas, including climate change awareness, education, access to natural and physical assets, and availability of economic resources to local communities.