A Deep–Learning Network for Wheat Yield Prediction Combining Weather Forecasts and Remote Sensing Data
Dailiang Peng, Enhui Cheng, Xuxiang Feng, Jinkang Hu, Zihang Lou, Hongchi Zhang, Bin Zhao, Yulong Lv, Hao Peng, Bing Zhang
Abstract
Accurately predicting winter wheat yield before harvest could greatly benefit decision-makers when making management decisions. In this study, we utilized weather forecast (WF) data combined with Sentinel-2 data to establish the deep-learning network and achieved an in-season county-scale wheat yield prediction in China’s main wheat-producing areas. We tested a combination of short-term WF data from the China Meteorological Administration to predict in-season yield at different forecast lengths. The results showed that explicitly incorporating WF data can improve the accuracy in crop yield predictions [Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 0.517 t/ha] compared to using only remote sensing data (RMSE = 0.624 t/ha). After comparing a series of WF data with different time series lengths, we found that adding 25 days of WF data can achieve the highest yield prediction accuracy. Specifically, the highest accuracy (RMSE = 0.496 t/ha) is achieved when predictions are made on Day of The Year (DOY) 215 (40 days before harvest). Our study established a deep-learning model which can be used for early yield prediction at the county level, and we have proved that weather forecast data can also be applied in data-driven deep-learning yield prediction tasks.