On the Autoregressive Time Series Model Using Real and Complex Analysis
Torsten Ullrich
Abstract
The autoregressive model is a tool used in time series analysis to describe and model time series data. Its main structure is a linear equation using the previous values to compute the next time step; i.e., the short time relationship is the core component of the autoregressive model. Therefore, short-term effects can be modeled in an easy way, but the global structure of the model is not obvious. However, this global structure is a crucial aid in the model selection process in data analysis. If the global properties are not reflected in the data, a corresponding model is not compatible. This helpful knowledge avoids unsuccessful modeling attempts. This article analyzes the global structure of the autoregressive model through the derivation of a closed form. In detail, the closed form of an autoregressive model consists of the basis functions of a fundamental system of an ordinary differential equation with constant coefficients; i.e., it consists of a combination of polynomial factors with sinusoidal, cosinusoidal, and exponential functions. This new insight supports the model selection process.