Food security
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Abstract
change dynamics such as deforestation and peatland degradation, generating 4.9 2.5 GtCO2 yr -1 . Using 100-year GWP values (no climate feedback) from the IPCC AR5, this implies that total GHG emissions from agriculture were 6.2 1.4 GtCO2-eq yr -1 , increasing to 11.1 2.9 GtCO2-eq yr -1 including relevant land use. Without intervention, these are likely to increase by about 30-40% by 2050, due to increasing demand based on population and income growth and dietary change (high confidence). {5.4} Supply-side practices can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing crop and livestock emissions, sequestering carbon in soils and biomass, and by decreasing emissions intensity within sustainable production systems (high confidence). Total technical mitigation potential from crop and livestock activities and agroforestry is estimated as 2.3-9.6 GtCO2-eq yr -1 by 2050 (medium confidence). Options with large potential for GHG mitigation in cropping systems include soil carbon sequestration (at decreasing rates over time), reductions in N2O emissions from fertilisers, reductions in CH4 emissions from paddy rice, and bridging of yield gaps. Options with large potential for mitigation in livestock systems include better grazing land management, with increased net primary production and soil carbon stocks, improved manure management, and higher-quality feed. Reductions in GHG emissions intensity (emissions per unit product) from livestock can support reductions in absolute emissions, provided appropriate governance to limit total production is implemented at the same time (medium confidence). {5.5.1}