Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union
Jon Sampedro, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven, Russell Horowitz, Clàudia Rodés-Bachs, Natasha Frilingou, Αλέξανδρος Νίκας, Matthew Binsted, Gokul Iyer, Brinda Yarlagadda
Abstract
The reduction of the EU's pipeline gas imports from Russia because of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the bloc. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU unevenly impacts the energy mix and gas prices across subregions within the EU, depending on their access to alternative gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas infrastructure. The restrictions also affect global gas infrastructure capacity additions, asset stranding, and trade dynamics. Our results show that the Fit-for-55 policy framework already improves the EU's resilience against a cut-off of Russian pipeline gas, while additional improvements in energy efficiency and renewable targets could further soften impacts. • Reduced Russian gas increases EU domestic gas production and non-Russian imports. • The new composition of the gas import mix increases EU prices of wholesale gas. • EU subregions with more access to non-Russian gas are more resilient to the cut-off. • The crisis impacts global gas infrastructure capacity additions and asset stranding. • More ambitious RES targets may help to soften the impacts of the energy crisis.