Development and validation of a prediction model for microvascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma
Lin Wang, Yuexinzi Jin, Yazhou Ji, Yuan Mu, Shi-Chang Zhang, Shiyang Pan
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Microvascular invasion (MVI) is an important prognostic factor affecting early recurrence and overall survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after hepatectomy and liver transplantation, but it can be determined only in surgical specimens. Accurate preoperative prediction of MVI is conducive to clinical decisions. AIM: To develop and validate a preoperative prediction model for MVI in patients with HCC. METHODS: Data from 454 patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between May 2016 and October 2019 were retrospectively collected. Then, the patients were nonrandomly split into a training cohort and a validation cohort. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify variables significantly associated with MVI that were then included in the nomogram. We evaluated the discrimination and calibration ability of the nomogram by using R software. RESULTS: < 0.001). The concordance index was 0.79 (95%CI: 0.74-0.84) and 0.81 (95%CI: 0.74-0.89) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curves showed good agreement between the predicted risk by the nomogram and real outcomes. CONCLUSION: We have developed and validated a preoperative prediction model for MVI in patients with HCC. The model could aid physicians in clinical treatment decision making.