Ranking the risk of animal-to-human spillover for newly discovered viruses
Zoë Grange, Tracey Goldstein, Christine K. Johnson, Simon J. Anthony, Kirsten Gilardi, Peter Daszak, Kevin J. Olival, Tammie O’Rourke, Suzan Murray, Sarah H. Olson, Eri Togami, Gema Vidal, Expert Panel, Jonna A. K. Mazet, Kevin Anderson, Prasert Auewarakul, Lark L. Coffey, Ronald B Corley, Gwenae͏̈lle Dauphin, Jonathan H. Epstein, Keiji Fukuda, Simon J. Goodman, Barbara A. Han, James Hughes, M. Jeggo, William B. Karesh, Rudovick Kazwala, T. Ross Kelly, Gerald T. Keusch, Micheal Kurilla, J. S. Mackenzie, Wanda Markotter, Corina Monagin, David M. Morens, Vincent J. Munster, Elke Mühlberger, Pranav Pandit, Alison J. Peel, Dirk U. Pfeiffer, Olivier Restif, Oyewale Tomori, Jonathan S. Towner, Sylvie van der Werf, Sophie VonDobschetz, Supaporn Wacharapluesadee, Micheal Ward, Lidewij Weirsma, Mary Edyth Wilson, David J. Wolking, Kachen Wongsathapornchai, Liam Brierley, Carlos Tambrana-Torellio, those who wish to remain anonymous, Arif Islam, Shariful Islam, Zia Raman, Vibol Hul, Veasna Duong, Mohamed Moctar Mouliom Mouiche, Julius Nwobegahay, Kalpy Julien Coulibaly, Charles Kumakamba, Eddy Kambale Syaluha, Jean-Paul K. Lukusa, Desalegn Belay, Nigatu Kebede, William Ampofo, Sammuel Bel-Nono, Richard Suu‐Ire, Kalivogui Douokoro, Huda Dursman, Imung Pamungkas, Novie Rachmitasari, Suryo Saputro, Wirda Damanik, Tina Kusumaningrum, Maya Rambitan, Beounly Rey, Dodi Safari, Amin Soebandrio, Juliana Triastuti, Ehab A. Abu‐Basha, Kwallah Allan, Kamau Joseph, Mutura Samson, Bouaphanh Khamphaphonphane, Watthana Theppanga, Jim Desmond, Sandra Samules, Mei‐Ho Lee, Jimmy Lee, Batchuluun Damdinjav, Enkhtuvshin Shiilegdamba, Ohnmar Aung, Manisha Bista, Dibesh Karmacharya, Rima Shrestha, Julius Nziza, Jean-Claude Tumushime, Modou Moustapha Lô
Abstract
The death toll and economic loss resulting from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic are stark reminders that we are vulnerable to zoonotic viral threats. Strategies are needed to identify and characterize animal viruses that pose the greatest risk of spillover and spread in humans and inform public health interventions. Using expert opinion and scientific evidence, we identified host, viral, and environmental risk factors contributing to zoonotic virus spillover and spread in humans. We then developed a risk ranking framework and interactive web tool, SpillOver, that estimates a risk score for wildlife-origin viruses, creating a comparative risk assessment of viruses with uncharacterized zoonotic spillover potential alongside those already known to be zoonotic. Using data from testing 509,721 samples from 74,635 animals as part of a virus discovery project and public records of virus detections around the world, we ranked the spillover potential of 887 wildlife viruses. Validating the risk assessment, the top 12 were known zoonotic viruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Several newly detected wildlife viruses ranked higher than known zoonotic viruses. Using a scientifically informed process, we capitalized on the recent wealth of virus discovery data to systematically identify and prioritize targets for investigation. The publicly accessible SpillOver platform can be used by policy makers and health scientists to inform research and public health interventions for prevention and rapid control of disease outbreaks. SpillOver is a living, interactive database that can be refined over time to continue to improve the quality and public availability of information on viral threats to human health.