Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting Based on Wind Load Data Using Hybrid Optimization Algorithm
Guangyu Qin, Qingyou Yan, Jingyao Zhu, Chuanbo Xu, Daniel M. Kammen
Abstract
Accurate wind power forecasting is essential to reduce the negative impact of wind power on the operation of the grid and the operation cost of the power system. Day-ahead wind power forecasting plays an important role in the day-ahead electricity spot trading market. However, the instability of the wind power series makes the forecast difficult. To improve forecast accuracy, a hybrid optimization algorithm is established in this study, which combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), maximum relevance & minimum redundancy algorithm (mRMR), long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), and firefly algorithm (FA) together. Firstly, the original historical wind power sequence is decomposed into several characteristic model functions with VMD. Then, mRMR is applied to obtain the best feature set by analyzing the correlation between each component. Finally, the FA is used to optimize the various parameters LSTM. Adding the forecasting results of all sub-sequences acquires the forecasting result. It turns out that the proposed hybrid algorithm is superior to the other six comparison algorithms. At the same time, an additional case is provided to further verify the adaptability and stability of the proposed hybrid model.