Impact of climate change on water resources and crop yield in the Middle Egypt region
Soha M. Mostafa, Osama Wahed, Walaa Y. El-Nashar, Samia El-Marsafawy, Hany F. Abd‐Elhamid
Abstract
Abstract Egypt's water resources are already limited. Moreover, climate change will put greater pressure on these resources. This research aims to assess the impact of climate change on the water demands for one of the most important Egyptian food crops which is the wheat crop. In addition, a number of adaptation strategies were tested to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on wheat productivity and its water relations. The current study was carried out in the Middle Egypt region. Two models were used, the first is the climate model (MAGICC/SCENGEN), which is used to simulate the impact of global greenhouse gas emissions on the rate of rise in temperature at the regional level. The second is the irrigation model (CROPWAT8.0), which is used to simulate the irrigation water requirements under current and likely climate change conditions. The results indicated that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions will cause the temperature to rise over the study area by about 2.12 °C in 2050 and 3.96 °C by 2100. As a result, the irrigation water needs for wheat crop are likely to increase by 6.2 and 11.8% in 2050 and 2100, respectively. In addition, wheat productivity will decline by 8.6 in 2050 and 11.1% in 2100.