A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit
Emanuele Bevacqua, Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner, Jakob Zscheischler
Abstract
Abstract The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, the first year above 1.5 °C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C.
Topics & Concepts
Period (music)Limit (mathematics)Earth (classical element)Environmental scienceClimatologyAtmospheric sciencesEarth scienceGeologyPhysicsMathematicsMathematical physicsAcousticsMathematical analysisClimate variability and modelsMeteorological Phenomena and SimulationsAtmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics