On application of machine learning method for history matching and forecasting of times series data from hydrocarbon recovery process using water flooding
Mayur Pal
Abstract
The focus of this paper is on application of advance data analytics and deep machine learning methods for time series forecasting of injection/production data from subsurface hydrocarbon recovery processes. Injection and production data, from subsurface reservoir developed though implementation of water flooding recovery mechanism, is used with aim of developing a machine learning based forecasting methodology to eventually replace numerical simulation-based forecasting methods. Different machine learning algorithms exists for single- and multi-step time series forecasting, e.g., nonlinear regression, artificial neural network (ANN) and long-short-term-memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural networks (RNN). In this paper, RNN-LSTM algorithm is tested on real field data, comprising of a number of injection and production well patterns, and results of RNN-LSTM forecasting model are presented. Complexities related to data acquisition, analysis, and processing are also discussed in detail. The results presented in this paper are unique as it is for the first time that ML model is applied to forecast production from a tight carbonate hydrocarbon reservoir, which is developed through water flooding with help of long horizontal wells. Such an application for time series forecasting using RNN-LSTM model has never been presented, before in literature, to the best of author’s knowledge.