Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal
Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Andries F. Hof, Maarten van den Berg, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Hsing-Hsuan Chen, Vassilis Daioglou, Mark Dekker, Jonathan Doelman, Michel den Elzen, Mathijs Harmsen, Stratos Mikropoulos, Mariësse A.E. van Sluisveld, Elke Stehfest, Isabela Schmidt Tagomori, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Detlef P. van Vuuren
Abstract
Abstract To reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are required to compensate for residual emissions in the hard-to-abate sectors. However, dependencies on CDR technologies involve environmental, technical and social risks, particularly related to increased land requirements for afforestation and bioenergy crops. Here, using scenarios consistent with the 1.5 °C target, we show that demand and technological interventions can substantially lower emission levels in four hard-to-abate sectors (industry, agriculture, buildings and transport) and reduce reliance on the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Specifically, demand measures and technology-oriented measures could limit peak annual bioenergy with carbon capture and storage use to 0.5–2.2 GtCO 2 e per year and 1.9–7.0 GtCO 2 e per year, respectively, compared with 10.3 GtCO 2 e per year in the default 1.5 °C scenario. Dietary change plays a critical role in the demand measures given its large share in residual agricultural emissions.