Ice conditions for maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea in future climate
Anders Höglund, Per Pemberton, Robinson Hordoir, Semjon Schimanke
Abstract
Ice conditions for maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea in past/present (1961–2005) and future climates (2006–2100) were investigated. To model the ice conditions, a state-of-the-art ocean model, Nemo-Nordic, with a coupled ice model, LIM3, was applied. The model is forced with downscaled atmospheric fields from two global climate models using two different greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios giving an ensemble of four realisations of possible future ice conditions. Even though ice extent will be reduced in future climate and ice seasons will become shorter, completely ice-free winters are unlikely during the present century. In future climate, the ice becomes thinner, thus fewer traffic restrictions will be needed, but with a large inter-annual variability. In future climate, the ice will also become more mobile.