Designing isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients with rapid antigen tests
Yong Dam Jeong, Keisuke Ejima, Kwang Su Kim, Joohyeon Woo, Shoya Iwanami, Yasuhisa Fujita, Il Hyo Jung, Kazuyuki Aihara, Kenji Shibuya, Shingo Iwami, Ana I. Bento, Marco Ajelli
Abstract
Appropriate isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients are warranted. Currently, isolating for fixed time is adopted in most countries. However, given the variability in viral dynamics between patients, some patients may no longer be infectious by the end of isolation, whereas others may still be infectious. Utilizing viral test results to determine isolation length would minimize both the risk of prematurely ending isolation of infectious patients and the unnecessary individual burden of redundant isolation of noninfectious patients. In this study, we develop a data-driven computational framework to compute the population-level risk and the burden of different isolation guidelines with rapid antigen tests (i.e., lateral flow tests). Here, we show that when the detection limit is higher than the infectiousness threshold values, additional consecutive negative results are needed to ascertain infectiousness status. Further, rapid antigen tests should be designed to have lower detection limits than infectiousness threshold values to minimize the length of prolonged isolation.