Comprehensive landslide susceptibility map of central Asia

Abstract

Abstract. Central Asia is an area characterized by complex tectonics and active deformation; the related seismic activity controls the earthquake hazard level that, due to the occurrence of secondary and tertiary effects, has also direct implications on the hazard related to mass movements as landslides, which are responsible for an extensive number of casualties every year. Climatically, this region is characterized by strong rainfall gradient contrasts, due to the diversity of climate and vegetation zones. The region is drained by large, partly snow- and glacier-fed rivers, that cross or terminate in arid forelands; therefore, it is affected also by a significant river flood hazard, mainly in spring and summer seasons. The challenge posed by the combination of different hazards can only be tackled considering a multi-hazard approach harmonized among the different countries, in agreement with the requirements of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. This work was carried out within the framework of the SFRARR Project (“Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia”) as a part of a multi-hazard approach, and is focused on the first landslide susceptibility analysis at a regional scale for Central Asia. To this aim the most detailed landslide inventories, covering both national and transboundary territories were implemented in a Random Forest model, together with several independent variables. The proposed approach represents an innovation in terms of resolution (from 30 to 70 m) and extension of the analysed area with respect to previous regional landslide susceptibility and hazard zonation models applied in Central Asia. The final aim was to provide a useful tool for land use-planning and risk reduction strategies to landslide scientists, practitioners and administrators.

Topics & Concepts