Non-Invasive Detection of Genomic Atypia Increases Real-World NPV and PPV of the Melanoma Diagnostic Pathway and Reduces Biopsy Burden
Maral Skelsey, Brook Brouha, Jim Rock, Michael Howell, Burkhard Jansen, Loren E. Clarke, Gary L. Peck
Abstract
Background: Management of pigmented lesions currently relies on visual assessment with surgical biopsy and histopathologic examination for those lesions suspicious for melanoma. A non-invasive genomic assay that detects two melanoma-associated biomarkers (PLA, 2-GEP) has recently been validated as an adjunct to visual assessment for distinguishing high-risk pigmented lesions appropriate for biopsy from those that can be safely monitored via clinical surveillance. Objectives: To calculate NPV and PPV of the PLA in real-world use and determine the distribution of PLA-positive lesions among categories in the MPATH-Dx classification scheme for melanocytic neoplasms. Methods: Real-world NPV was determined by following a cohort of 1,233 PLA-negative pigmented lesions for evidence of malignancy for up to 36 months and by re-testing a separate prospective cohort of 302 PLA-negative lesions up to 2 years after initial testing. Real-world PPV was determined by identifying melanoma diagnoses among PLA-positive lesions within a US-based registry of 3,418 PLA-tested cases. Results: Ten early-stage melanomas (4 in situ and 6 pT1a) were identified among 1,233 PLA-negative lesions (0.8%), corresponding to a real-world NPV of 99.2% (CI 95% = 98.5 - 99.6). Of 302 initially PLA-negative lesions subjected to repeat testing an average of 15 months later, 34 were PLA-positive. Biopsy revealed 3 melanomas (all in situ), further confirming an NPV of > 99%. Among 316 PLA-positive cases, 59 were diagnosed as melanoma by histopathology, corresponding to a PPV of 18.7%. Of all PLA-positive lesions, 30.5% had histopathologic diagnoses corresponding to high-risk MPATH-Dx categories (Classes III-V). Conclusions and Relevance: The PLA has an NPV of >99% within the real-world intended use population. The PLA has a PPV of 18.7% for melanoma and also detects high-risk lesions such as dysplastic nevi with severe / high-grade atypia that are generally targeted for complete excision.