The Impact of Electricity Generation on CO2 Emissions in Türkiye: An Agent-Based Simulation Approach
Denizhan Güven, M. Özgür Kayalıca, Ömer Lütfi Şen
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of energy, economic, and environmental policies on Türkiye’s energy dynamics and CO2 emissions using climate models and an agent-based simulation (ABM) framework. By integrating climate projections with policy scenarios, it assesses how energy transitions and climate change affect renewable energy sources (RES), cooling demands, and CO2 emissions from electricity generation. Methods include selecting suitable Global Climate Models (GCMs), evaluating climate change impacts on RES performance, and simulating policy effects through ABM across one base and nine policy scenarios from 2023 to 2040. The study highlights the critical role of policy interventions in influencing emissions trends and energy prices. It identifies renewable energy subsidies and low-carbon strategies, such as nuclear power support, as effective tools for reducing emissions and stabilizing energy costs. The methodologies and findings provide actionable insights for policymakers globally, emphasizing the importance of integrating climate data with policy planning.