Model the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 propagation with public health intervention
Dejen Ketema Mamo
Abstract
In this work, a researcher develops SHEIQRD (Susceptible–Stay-at-home–Exposed-Infected–Quarantine–Recovery–Death) coronavirus pandemic, spread model. The disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are computed and analyzed. The basic reproduction number R0 is acquired, and its sensitivity analysis conducted. COVID-19 pandemic spread dies out when R0≤1 and persists in the community whenever R0>1. Efficient stay-at-home rate, high coverage of precise identification and isolation of exposed and infected individuals, reduction of transmission, and stay-at-home return rate can mitigate COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, theoretical analysis and numerical results are shown to be consistent.
Topics & Concepts
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)PandemicQuarantineBasic reproduction numberIsolation (microbiology)Transmission (telecommunications)Transmission rateSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Epidemic modelPublic health2019-20 coronavirus outbreakWork (physics)MedicineComputer scienceEnvironmental healthInfectious disease (medical specialty)VirologyBiologyDiseaseTelecommunicationsEngineeringNursingPathologyMicrobiologyMechanical engineeringOutbreakPopulationCOVID-19 epidemiological studiesMathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology ModelsCOVID-19 and Mental Health