An assessment of climate change impacts on oases in northern Africa
Walter Leal Filho, Robert Stojanov, C. Matsoukas, Roberto Ingrosso, James Franke, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Tommaso Grassi, Jaromír Landa, Moulay Chérif Harrouni
Abstract
• Oases are vulnerable ecosystems affected by climate change. • Projected air temperature changes under an extreme global warming scenario are statistically significant for all oases studied. • The impact of the projected changes is likely to lead to a greater groundwater demand. • Water shortage is a trend paralleled by a reduction in precipitation. Oases are vulnerable ecosystems that are affected by climate change. Using high-resolution climate models focusing on northern Africa, we investigate the changes in the agrosystems of oases. Projected air temperature changes under an extreme global warming scenario are statistically significant for all oases studied, with an increase of up to 4–4.5 °C by the end of the century. The impact of the projected warming is likely to lead to an increased groundwater demand, with a parallel trend in reduced precipitation. Combined, these processes endanger the long-term socio-economic prospect of oases.