Developing an impact library for forecasting surface water flood risk
Timothy Aldridge, Oliver Gunawan, Robert E. Moore, Steven J. Cole, Graeme Boyce, Rob Cowling
Abstract
Abstract During surface water flooding events, emergency responders require detailed information on the risks posed in order to provide an appropriate and effective response. Few early warning systems quantitatively estimate the risk and impacts of surface water flooding. Improvements in computational processing capability, availability of new datasets and developments in forecasting models means that the forecasting information currently being supplied by the Flood Forecasting Centre can be improved upon through the application of a timely, impact‐based model. This article presents a novel approach to collating receptor datasets into a pre‐calculated Impact Library for use in a Hazard Impact Model (HIM) that will operate using real‐time probabilistic rainfall and surface runoff forecasts for England and Wales. The HIM provides an approach suitable for modelling flood impacts. Initial results are presented for a case study covering the 2012 floods in the North East of England. Information generated by the HIM provides additional benefits beyond current methods. Features include operator access to 1 km 15 min spatial–temporal data, analysis of individual impact criteria and modular refinement of the Impact Library to suit different situations. The HIM has been developed in partnership via the Natural Hazards Partnership.