Seamless Projections of Global Storm Surge and Ocean Waves Under a Warming Climate
Tomoya Shimura, William Pringle, Nobuhito Mori, Takuya Miyashita, Kohei Yoshida
Abstract
Abstract For coastal adaptation purposes, it is important to estimate the climate related changes in extreme sea levels due to storm surges and ocean waves, in addition to mean sea level rise. This study provides the first consistent and continuous estimation of projected changes in global storm surges and ocean waves from the past to the warmer future, based on an extremely high resolution global climate model. The spatial pattern in the trend of annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights is predominantly driven by changes in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency. In the western North Pacific, future TC frequencies are projected to decrease, and the annual maximum sea surface heights and wave heights show decreasing trends (−20 cm/century and −200 cm/century). Although highly intense tropical cyclones are enhanced in the warmer climate, highly extreme storm surges and wave heights do not necessarily increase due to the large natural variability.