Photovoltaic power forecasting: A Transformer based framework
Gabriele Piantadosi, Sofia Dutto, Antonio Galli, Saverio De Vito, Carlo Sansone, Girolamo Di Francia
Abstract
The accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) energy production is a crucial task to optimise the integration of solar energy into the power grid and maximise the benefit of renewable source trading in the energy market. This paper systematically and quantitatively analyses the literature by comparing different machine learning techniques and the impact of different meteorological forecast providers. The methodology consists of an irradiance model coupled with a meteorological provider; this combination removes the constraint of a local irradiance measurement. The result is a Transformer Neural Network architecture, trained and tested using OpenMeteo data, whose performance is superior to other combinations, providing a MAE of 1.22 kW (0.95%), and a MAPE of 2.21%. The implications of our study suggest that adopting a comprehensive approach, integrating local weather data, modelled irradiance, and PV plant configuration data, can significantly improve the accuracy of PV power forecasting, thus contributing to more effective technological and economic integration. • This work focuses on PV power output forecasting with ML. • PV power forecasting with ML models on various datasets to evaluate their efficacy. • Transformer model shows the lowest errors when forecasting PV power production.