Effective Reproductive Number estimation for initial stage of COVID-19 pandemic in Latin American Countries
Yaset Caicedo, David Esteban Rebellón-Sánchez, Marcela Peñaloza-Rallón, Hector F. Cortés-Motta, Yardany Rafael Méndez-Fandiño
Abstract
Objectives: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become pandemic and turn in a challenge for Latin America. Understanding the dynamics of the epidemic is essential for decision making, and to reduce the health, economic, and social impacts of the pandemic. The present study aimed to estimate the effective reproductive number (R t ) of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov2) infection during the first 10 days of the outbreak in seven Latin American countries with the highest incidence of cases as of March 23, 2020. Furthermore, we chose to compare the seven countries with Spain and Italy given their history with the virus. Methods: Incidence data retrieved from the COVID-19 data repository by Johns Hopkins University were analyzed. The R t was calculated for the first 10 days of the epidemic in Brazil, Ecuador, Chile, Colombia, Panama, Mexico, and Peru. R t estimations were compared with Spain and Italy values for the same interval.