Interaction-Aware Short-Term Marine Vessel Trajectory Prediction With Deep Generative Models
Peihua Han, Mingda Zhu, Houxiang Zhang
Abstract
Navigation safety is of paramount importance in areas with heavy and complex maritime traffic. Any ship navigating such a scenario should be able to foresee the future positions of other ships and adjust its path accordingly to avoid collisions. However, predicting future trajectories is a very challenging problem due to many possible future trajectories from the inherent uncertainty and the complex interaction dynamics between different ships. In this article, we propose a deep generative model based on the conditional variational autoencoder framework to learn marine vessel movement and predict future trajectories. The model is able to produce a multimodal probability distribution over future trajectories and model the complex interactions between vessels. Experiments are performed in two-vessel encounter scenarios from real-world automatic identification system data. The proposed model outperforms the baseline methods, including both kinematics-based and data-driven methods. The trajectories predicted by the proposed model are also analyzed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model.