The physics of climate variability and climate change
Michael Ghil, Valerio Lucarini
Abstract
This article presents a comprehensive survey of the fundamentals of climate dynamics. Recent developments in dynamical systems theory, as well as in random processes and statistical mechanics, have created a common framework for physicists and climate scientists. The key aspects of climate dynamics addressed here are the natural variability of the climate system, the deterministic and random processes that contribute to this variability, its response to perturbations, and the relations between internal and external causes of observed changes in the system. Tools are presented for the study of critical transitions in the climate system, which can help us to understand and possibly predict the potential for catastrophic climate change.